U.S. Job Outlook 2025–2035: Growth, Openings, Pay and Entry Requirements Across 831 Occupations

Abstract

This MTF Institute Research Report analyses all 831 line-item occupations in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Table 1.2 for the 2025–2035 employment projections cycle. It compares four career signals that are often confused: projected percentage growth, projected numeric job growth, annual openings, and 2025 median annual wage. It also retains BLS education, related-experience, and on-the-job-training fields so that attractive projections can be interpreted against entry requirements.

The central finding is that there is no single “best future job” ranking. High percentage growth identifies expanding niches; numeric growth identifies scale; annual openings include replacement demand and therefore describe access volume; pay describes current compensation, not future accessibility. Nurse practitioners lead percentage growth at 41.0%, while home health and personal care aides lead numeric growth with 847,300 additional jobs. Fast food and counter workers have the most annual openings in the dataset at 827,400, while several of the highest-paid occupations are specialist physicians with long training pathways and relatively few openings. Data scientists combine 34.6% growth, 95,400 projected additional jobs, 24,800 annual openings, and a $120,230 median wage, but require a typical entry-level bachelor’s degree. Medical and health services managers combine 24.2% growth, 155,100 additional jobs, 62,300 annual openings, and a $123,860 median wage, with a bachelor’s degree and related experience typically required.

The report introduces CAREER-4, a decision method that keeps growth, openings, pay, and access separate until a reader applies personal constraints. BLS projections describe a plausible macroeconomic path, not a promise to an individual, a prediction of job postings, or proof that one occupation is protected from automation.

Direct answer

For someone choosing what to learn now, the strongest U.S. opportunities through 2035 are not simply the occupations with the highest growth rate. A defensible shortlist combines: above-average percentage growth; enough annual openings to provide repeated entry opportunities; acceptable pay for the required training; and a feasible education or experience pathway. On those dimensions, the dataset highlights several distinct opportunity families: advanced healthcare practice, healthcare management, data science and information security, software and computing, skilled renewable-energy installation and maintenance, industrial maintenance, and high-volume health and care services. The right choice depends on a reader’s time, finances, prior experience, licensing constraints, physical requirements, and tolerance for occupational risk.

Research question

Across the 831 detailed line-item occupations in the current BLS 2025–2035 projection table:

  1. Which occupations have the highest projected percentage growth?
  2. Which add the largest number of jobs?
  3. Which generate the most annual openings?
  4. How do wages and entry requirements change the interpretation?
  5. Which decision rules help a learner create a realistic shortlist without collapsing unlike signals into one opaque ranking?

The practical output is a reproducible data file, ranked extracts, and CAREER-4. The reader should be able to reject attractive but inaccessible options, distinguish expansion from replacement demand, and choose the next evidence-gathering step.

Data source and observation unit

The source is BLS Table 1.2, Occupational projections, 2025–35, and worker characteristics, 2025, published with the August 2026 Employment Projections release. The public table contains summary rows and line-item occupations. MTF preserved 1,112 rows from the page and selected the 831 rows whose BLS occupation type is “Line item” as the analytical population.

Each observation is a detailed National Employment Matrix occupation identified by its BLS occupation code. The retained fields are occupation title, occupation code, 2025 employment, 2035 employment, percentage employment change, numeric employment change, 2025 self-employment share, annual average openings, 2025 median annual wage, typical education for entry, related work experience, and typical on-the-job training. Employment, numeric change, and annual openings are published in thousands; MTF multiplies by 1,000 when describing job counts in prose.

The source covers the United States as a whole. It does not provide local demand, job-posting volume, remote-work eligibility, visa sponsorship, demographic outcomes, individual probability of employment, or salary by region. It is a projection table, not a vacancy sample.

Method

MTF downloaded a text rendering of the official BLS table on 25 September 2026 and parsed each row with a valid occupation code. We retained source values without imputation. Em dashes or unavailable numeric fields were stored as missing, not zero. We filtered to occupation type “Line item” and produced rankings for percentage change, numeric change, annual openings, median wage, and numeric decline.

To reduce distortion from very small occupations in a growth-rate view, we created a second percentage-growth extract requiring at least 10,000 workers in 2025. The threshold does not define importance; it gives readers a scale-aware view. We did not combine metrics into a universal weighted score because any weight would embed value judgements about pay, access, time, and risk. Instead, CAREER-4 keeps four dimensions visible and asks the reader to set constraints.

The analysis is descriptive. No significance tests are needed because the file is the full published line-item table rather than a sample drawn from it. Rankings reproduce BLS projections; they do not estimate causal effects. The processed CSV, ranked extracts, analysis code, report Markdown, and final PDF are included in the Zenodo archive.

Economy-wide baseline

BLS projects total U.S. employment to rise from 170.3 million in 2025 to 176.2 million in 2035: a gain of approximately 5.9 million jobs, or 3.5%. The table reports 17.46 million occupational openings per year across all occupations. Annual openings are far larger than net job growth because openings include workers who leave an occupation or exit the labour force as well as newly created positions.

This distinction is fundamental. An occupation can shrink and still produce many openings. Cashiers are projected to decline by 200,600 jobs, yet the table reports 521,300 annual openings. Secretaries and administrative assistants outside legal, medical, and executive specialties are projected to decline by 114,100 jobs, yet have 163,900 annual openings. A job seeker may still find vacancies in a declining occupation; a long-term learner should also consider the direction of demand, technology exposure, wage progression, and transferable skills.

Finding 1: fastest percentage growth is concentrated but diverse

Among line-item occupations, nurse practitioners have the highest projected percentage growth at 41.0%, rising by 137,800 jobs from a 2025 base of 336,300. The typical entry education is a master’s degree, and the 2025 median annual wage is $132,300. This is a large, well-paid occupation with a demanding licensed pathway.

Solar photovoltaic installers rank second at 36.5%, adding 11,300 jobs from a 31,100 base. The typical entry education is a high school diploma, followed by moderate-term on-the-job training; median wage is $53,140. This illustrates why percentage growth alone needs scale: the rate is high, but projected numeric growth and annual openings—4,200—are much smaller than in large occupations.

Data scientists rank third at 34.6%, adding 95,400 jobs from a 275,600 base. BLS reports 24,800 annual openings, a $120,230 median wage, and a bachelor’s degree as the typical entry education. Wind turbine service technicians grow 29.5%, but from an 11,800 base, producing 3,500 additional jobs and 1,500 annual openings. The typical entry pathway is a postsecondary nondegree award plus long-term on-the-job training.

Medical and health services managers grow 24.2%, adding 155,100 jobs from a 640,400 base. The occupation has 62,300 annual openings and a $123,860 median wage; BLS lists a bachelor’s degree and less than five years of related experience as typical. It therefore combines growth, scale, pay, and an experience-based transition route.

Other occupations above 20% growth include physical therapist assistants at 23.0%, psychiatric technicians at 22.3%, computer and information research scientists at 21.8%, occupational therapy assistants at 21.5%, ophthalmic medical technicians at 21.4%, physician assistants at 21.1%, and information security analysts at 21.0%. The group spans licensed graduate professions, bachelor’s-level analytical roles, associate-degree clinical work, and technical occupations. “The future of work” is not one educational pathway.

Finding 2: numeric growth favours large service and management occupations

Home health and personal care aides lead projected numeric growth with 847,300 additional jobs, an 18.1% increase from a 4.68 million base. The occupation also has 760,500 annual openings. Typical entry education is high school and short-term on-the-job training; median wage is $35,800. The result shows high demand volume alongside modest pay and potentially demanding working conditions. Opportunity and job quality must be evaluated separately.

Stockers and order fillers add 250,700 jobs at 8.9% growth, while fast food and counter workers add 223,300 jobs at 5.8%. Registered nurses add 194,700 jobs at 5.6%, with 180,800 annual openings and a $97,550 median wage. General and operations managers add 181,300 jobs at 5.0%, with 285,000 annual openings and a $105,770 median wage, but BLS identifies a bachelor’s degree and five or more years of related experience as typical.

Software developers are also among the largest numeric-growth occupations. Their presence supports continued demand for software creation even as AI changes tasks inside the occupation. The projection should not be read as proof that every software speciality or skill remains equally valuable. Employers may change team composition, productivity expectations, and entry-level hiring while total occupational employment grows.

Medical and health services managers add 155,100 jobs, nurse practitioners add 137,800, and data scientists add 95,400. These roles are especially notable because they appear near the top of both percentage and numeric growth, but their entry barriers differ sharply.

Finding 3: annual openings measure access volume, not expansion

Fast food and counter workers have approximately 827,400 annual openings, the largest annual-opening count among line-item occupations. Home health and personal care aides follow with 760,500. Cashiers have 521,300 annual openings despite projected decline. Stockers and order fillers have 430,700, and customer service representatives have 289,500 despite a projected 141,800-job decline.

General and operations managers have 285,000 annual openings, a large figure that includes replacement and occupational mobility. It should not be interpreted as 285,000 entry-level management jobs. The typical related-experience field is five years or more, and the occupation is broad. A candidate must examine local role definitions, industry knowledge, management scope, and competitive experience.

Annual openings are valuable for career planning because they describe how often positions may need to be filled, but they do not say how many openings are accessible to a specific candidate. Many openings replace experienced workers, require licences, occur in particular locations or shifts, or offer conditions a reader may not accept.

The practical rule is to use annual openings as a volume filter after checking entry requirements and occupation direction. High openings plus decline can support near-term job availability while signalling pressure on long-term role design.

Finding 4: the largest declines are concentrated in routine transaction and clerical work

Cashiers have the largest projected numeric decline at 200,600 jobs, or -6.5%. Office clerks, general decline by 156,200 (-6.0%); customer service representatives by 141,800 (-5.3%); secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive, by 114,100 (-6.0%); and bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks by 85,600 (-5.6%).

Shipping, receiving, and inventory clerks decline by 62,800; first-line supervisors of retail sales workers by 52,500; tellers by 44,700; and data entry keyers by 33,600. Data entry keyers have a particularly steep percentage decline of -25.5%.

These projections are consistent with continued automation and process redesign in routine information handling and transactions, but the table does not attribute each decline exclusively to AI. Industry change, self-service, software, organisational redesign, demographics, and macroeconomic assumptions also matter. BLS introduces separate AI exposure categories and applies expert judgement conservatively in the projection process.

The presence of annual openings means people will still be hired into many declining occupations. The development implication is to move from transaction execution toward exception handling, customer judgement, system supervision, analysis, process improvement, controls, or domain-specialist work. A title may persist while its task mix changes.

Finding 5: pay and accessibility produce different opportunity sets

The highest median wages belong largely to specialist physicians and surgeons. Pediatric surgeons have a reported median of $559,030, cardiologists $496,010, and radiologists $420,860. These are not quick-reskilling options: typical entry requires a doctoral or professional degree and internship or residency, with licensing requirements outside the table.

Several high-growth roles also exceed $120,000 median pay: computer and information research scientists ($140,300), physician assistants ($135,880), nurse practitioners ($132,300), information security analysts ($129,180), medical and health services managers ($123,860), and data scientists ($120,230). Their education and experience pathways range from bachelor’s plus experience to graduate professional training.

Solar photovoltaic installers ($53,140), wind turbine service technicians ($64,120), occupational health and safety technicians ($61,560), and industrial machinery mechanics ($64,520) show that postsecondary nondegree or high-school entry pathways can participate in structural growth. Pay, physical demands, geography, travel, licensing, shift work, and training quality still require local investigation.

Median wage is not an offer and does not control for region, industry, seniority, overtime, self-employment, or benefits. It is best used as a broad filter and a prompt for more specific wage evidence.

CAREER-4: a decision model for readers

CAREER-4 keeps four dimensions separate.

1. Growth direction. Compare the occupation’s percentage change with the 3.5% all-occupation baseline. Growth above the baseline is favourable, but examine base size and causal context.

2. Opening volume. Use annual openings to judge the scale and recurrence of entry opportunities. Distinguish expansion from replacement demand.

3. Reward and conditions. Review median wage alongside local pay, benefits, schedule, physical and emotional demands, employment type, and progression.

4. Entry feasibility. Audit education, licence, related experience, on-the-job training, geography, cost, time, and the transferability of your current evidence.

Create a shortlist table with these four columns plus “next test.” Do not score an occupation until you have applied non-negotiable constraints. If you cannot or do not want to complete a licensed master’s pathway, nurse practitioner growth is irrelevant to your immediate plan. If you need remote work, local installation occupations may not fit. If you need earnings quickly, a long academic path may be infeasible even when long-term pay is high.

After constraints, choose weights that reflect your situation. A mid-career manager might weight experience transfer and earnings continuity heavily. An early-career learner might weight training cost and opening volume. A career changer with geographic flexibility might weight growth and pathway duration. Document the weights so the ranking is your decision, not a supposedly objective universal score.

Five occupation archetypes for planning

High-growth, high-pay, degree-intensive: data scientists, information security analysts, computer and information research scientists, physician assistants, and nurse practitioners. Test prerequisite depth, licence requirements, portfolio expectations, and competition.

High-growth management transitions: medical and health services managers and computer and information systems managers. These often require domain experience plus broader finance, operations, people, risk, and governance capability.

High-growth technical pathways without a bachelor’s as typical entry: solar photovoltaic installers, wind turbine service technicians, and some health or safety technician roles. Test programme quality, apprenticeships, local demand, travel, and physical requirements.

High-volume service and care: home health and personal care aides, registered nurses, food service, and related occupations. Separate labour demand from job quality and sustainable workload.

Declining but still hiring: cashiers, customer service representatives, clerical workers, and bookkeeping clerks. If entering or remaining, build adjacent skills in systems, analysis, exception resolution, controls, customer judgement, and process improvement.

These archetypes are not destiny. They help a reader ask better questions.

What to learn now

Do not respond to the table by collecting generic certificates. Start from a target occupation and reverse-engineer evidence. For a data role, build statistical, data-management, programming, domain, and communication proof through projects. For information security, combine technical foundations, risk reasoning, controls, incident analysis, and hands-on environments. For healthcare management, connect sector knowledge to finance, operations, quality, regulation, workforce, and change. For industrial maintenance or renewable energy, prioritise recognised technical training, safety, supervised practice, and employer pathways.

Across occupations, build three durable layers: domain knowledge; the ability to use relevant digital and AI tools responsibly; and the ability to make and communicate decisions with evidence. AI fluency without domain judgement produces fragile work. Domain knowledge without tool adaptation can reduce productivity. Communication without evidence does not survive scrutiny.

Limitations

The projection period extends ten years and depends on macroeconomic, demographic, policy, industry, and technology assumptions. Unexpected recessions, innovations, laws, conflicts, migration, or business-model changes can alter outcomes. Percentage changes can make small occupations look dominant. Annual openings include replacement needs and do not equal new jobs. Median wages are national and do not represent offers or future wages.

The table provides typical entry requirements, not mandatory requirements for every employer. It does not measure skills, job quality, automation probability, remote eligibility, geographic concentration, visa sponsorship, discrimination, career satisfaction, or training capacity. Occupation titles aggregate heterogeneous jobs. Classification changes or data revisions may affect comparisons.

MTF’s parsing of the public table preserved published values and produced descriptive rankings. Errors in the source or parsing are possible; the official BLS table remains authoritative. The 10,000-worker threshold used for one growth view is an analytical convenience, not a BLS standard.

Conclusion

The 2025–2035 BLS projections show opportunity spreading across healthcare, data and security, computing, skilled technical work, industrial maintenance, management, and large service occupations. They also show contraction in many routine transaction and clerical roles. The decisive insight is not a single winning profession. It is the need to separate growth rate, scale, openings, pay, and entry feasibility.

Use CAREER-4 to create a shortlist of three occupations. For each, verify local demand, current postings, training cost, completion time, licensing, realistic starting pay, and a portfolio or experience path. Interview practitioners and employers. Then choose the smallest reversible learning investment that can test fit before committing to a long programme.

Managers preparing for broader general-management transitions can evaluate the Advanced Executive Management & Business Administration programme as one option for integrating strategy, finance, operations, people, risk, and executive communication. It does not replace occupation-specific education, licensing, or experience.

Author and review

Research, analysis, and writing: MTF Institute Editorial Team. Method and publication review: MTF Institute Research Review. Publication date: 25 September 2026. Report identifier: MTF-RR-2026-09-25-01. The Zenodo record contains the searchable PDF, source-table rendering, processed 831-observation CSV, ranked extracts, analysis code, and report Markdown.

Archive and citation

The version of record is archived on Zenodo record 22948933, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22948933. The archive includes the searchable report PDF and a reproducibility bundle. Cite the report as: MTF Institute Editorial Team (2026), U.S. Job Outlook 2025-2035: Growth, Openings, Pay and Entry Requirements Across 831 Occupations, MTF Institute Research Report MTF-RR-2026-09-25-01, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22948933, Zenodo record 22948933.

Primary sources

The report interprets official projections; it does not represent the views of BLS, forecast an individual career outcome, or guarantee employment, pay, licensing, immigration status, or programme value.